🔗 Share this article

Only 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – not just the winner citywide, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

What was your night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in later and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world where election day turned out kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo would have basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president last year went for Zohran now. However it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he achieves it so then no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I believe occurred a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. So there was a little resistance. But no, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he did?

Exist areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. And also, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.