Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
