‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's Kitchen Fuel Supplies.
The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now being felt in India's households.
As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of cooking gas are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases close completely.
Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside LPG distributors across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the shortages are now being noticed across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are turning to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."
City-Specific Fallout
In a financial hub, local news say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their gas stocks have shrunk with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.
Restaurant operators are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers note a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.
Government Stance
Yet, the government states there is adequate supply.
India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and spokespersons say cylinders are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.
About a majority of India's LPG is imported, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the conflict.
The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for essential sectors such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".
"A degree of anxious stocking and stockpiling has been sparked by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.
Growing Panic
Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.
According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.
India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around half of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.
Based on vessel tracking and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness
The primary concern is kitchen fuel, commentators observe.
India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.
Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be somewhat alleviated through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be intensifying the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.
An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.
"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."
For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.
